Nearly 28
million South African registered voters are voting to elect representatives
to the national and provincial parliaments.
This election is historic for multiple reasons. First, it
will mark the seventh democratic election since the end of apartheid in 1994. Second,
it will be the first time independent candidates are allowed to contest due to a
new
bill signed into law in 2023.
The ruling African
National Congress (ANC), once led by the late Nelson Mandela, has dominated
South African politics for the past 30 years. However, polls
have shown that this election will be the toughest yet for the ANC and its
current leader, President Cyril Ramaphosa.
But how does the South African electoral system work? What
are the main political parties, and what are the key issues voters will
consider in making their voting decision?
This article
addresses these issues and explores the potential outcomes, including when the
results will be announced and who is likely to emerge victorious.
Major political parties
About 70
political parties are competing in this crucial election, with the focus being
on the African National Congress (ANC), the Democratic
Alliance (DA), the Economic Freedom
Fighters (EFF), the uMkhonto we Sizwe
(MK) and the Inkatha
Freedom Party (IFP).
The ANC, historically dominant, is facing stiff competition
from the DA and the EFF. President Cyril Ramaphosa of the ANC, John Steenhuisen
of the DA, and Julius Malema of the EFF emerge as prominent figures hoping to
lead the country if their party triumphs. Another prominent figure is a former
president of South Africa Jacob Zuma, who now leads the uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK)
party.
How does the South African electoral system work?
South Africa employs a proportional representation system
for its elections. This means that seats
in both the national and provincial parliaments are allocated based on the
percentage of votes each party receives.
Voters cast three separate ballots: one for a political
party in the national parliament, one for a party or independent candidate
representing their province in the national parliament, and one for the
provincial legislature.
The National Assembly comprises 400 members, with 200
members elected from national party lists and the remaining 200 from provincial
party lists.
After the general election, these 400 members of the
National Assembly vote to elect the President within 30 days.
This indirect election system means that the party or
coalition with a majority in the National Assembly effectively determines the
President.
Key issues for voters
Key issues influencing voter sentiment include high
unemployment (currently the highest in the world at 33%),
endemic
corruption, crime,
and service delivery challenges with electricity
and water
challenges being prominent.
Who is likely to win the election?
The ANC, the largest political party in South Africa may
struggle to maintain its majority in the upcoming 2024 general elections due to
the increasingly competitive nature of the political landscape and the dissatisfaction
among South Africans with the ANC
government: Recent polls suggest the ANC
could obtain around 44.8%
of the vote, necessitating a coalition to govern.
The support of the DA and EFF, along with the MK Party which
is led by former president Jacob Zuma, would be crucial in forming the next
government if the ANC fails to secure the majority as predicted by the polls.
John Steenhuisen of the DA has indicated
a willingness to form a coalition with the ANC to prevent an ANC-EFF-MK
alliance.
If the ANC retains power, Incumbent President Cyril
Ramaphosa is likely to remain president for another five years.
When will the results be released?
The Independent
Electoral Commission (IEC) will start releasing partial results within
hours of the polls closing. The final results are expected to be announced by
Sunday, 2nd June.
However, provisional
results will provide an early indication of the likely outcome within a day or
two after voting closes.
Follow the African
Elections Project on Facebook and Twitter @Africanelection for more updates.