In this week’s episode of the 2024 Ghana
Elections Constituency Watch Series, we take a detour to Ayawaso West Wuogon
(AWW), a constituency which does not particularly fit the criteria of constituencies
we have profiled in the past few months. AWW is not your traditional swing
constituency; out of 7 electoral cycles, National Democratic Congress (NDC) has
won only twice (1996 and 2012) in the presidential elections and won once
(1996) in the parliamentary elections leaving the New Patriotic Party (NPP)
with the lion’s share.
However, this detour is necessitated by an
interesting poll recently released by Global Info Analytics (a polling and
market research firm) concerning the 2024 AWW parliamentary election which is
cited at the end of this article.
The article assesses the key issues as well as the historical performance of both parties in the constituency and some of the key challenges that residents face as they prepare to choose their leaders for the next four years.
About Ayawaso West Wuogon Constituency
The Ayawaso West Wuogon Constituency (AWW) is located in the Ayawaso West Municipality of the Greater Accra Region. It shares boundaries with the Ayawaso North, Ayawaso East, Ayawaso Central, and Okaikoi North constituencies all in the Greater Accra Region.
A map of he Ayawaso West Wuogon Constituency and boundary constituencies. (African Elections)
According to the EC
2020 Voter Register, the constituency has a voter population of about 92,852
people. The constituency is often described as the “elite” constituency due to
its affluent neighborhoods, high-end
real estate and presence of prestigious institutions like the University of
Ghana, the Ghana Institute of Management and Public Administration (GIMPA) and
the University of Professional Studies (UPSA). The constituency also boasts of
one of Ghana’s most prestigious medical facilities, the University of Ghana
Medical Centre.
Some of the popular towns within the constituency include among others, Dzorwulu, East Legon, Shiashie, Airport Residential Area, Okponglo, Roman Ridge and Abelempke.
The constituency came to national limelight in
2019 during a by-election that was characterized by violence, following the death of
the Member of Parliament (MP), Emmanuel Kyeremanteng Agyarko. The current MP of
the constituency is Lydia Seyram Alhassan, who came to power through that
by-election and was subsequently re-elected in the 2020 elections, beating her
closest contender John Dumelo in a competitive election.
Barely four months to the next election, the same candidates are set to meet again in an election that is expected to be a two-horse race. Will John Dumelo be able to win the seat for the NDC following his impressive performance in the 2020 elections, or will Lydia Alhassan consolidate the gains the NPP has made over the past 24 years in Ayawaso West Wuogon?
(African Elections)
Presidential Election Dynamics in the
Constituency
Ayawaso West Wuogon is a stronghold of the governing New Patriotic Party. The graph below illustrates the presidential voting trend for the NDC and the NPP from 1996 to the 2020 election.
Source: Author's computation with data from the Electoral Commission of Ghana (African Elections)
From the graph, the NPP won all presidential elections in Ayawaso West Wuogon except for 1996 and 2012 when it lost marginally to the NDC. In the 1996 elections, the NDC secured 48.6% compared to the NPP's 48.4%, a difference of 0.2%. Similarly, the NDC won marginally in 2012, obtaining 49.9% compared to the NPP's 49.1%. Aside from those years, the NPP has won all other elections (2000, 2004, 2008, 2016, and 2020).
Parliamentary Elections Performance
Since 2000, the NPP has dominated parliamentary elections in the Ayawaso West Wuogon Constituency, as shown in the graph below.
Source: Author's computation with data from the Electoral Commission (African Elections)
In 1996, the NDC candidate, Rebecca Akweley Adotey, pulled 46.1% of the votes to defeat her closest contender, George Isaac Amoo of the NPP, who obtained 45.2%.
In the 2000 elections, George Isaac Amoo won the seat with 56.2% of the votes, beating the NDC candidate Elvis Afriyie Ankrah, who pulled 36.5% of the votes. Similarly, the NPP won the seat in the 2004 and 2008 elections, with Frema Akosua Osei Opare, the current Chief of Staff, obtaining 52.1% and 48.2% respectively.
In the 2012 and 2016 elections, Emmanuel Kyeremateng Agyarko was elected as the MP on the ticket of the NPP. In 2012, he obtained 50.3% of the votes to defeat the NDC parliamentary candidate, Kwame Awuah-Darko, who obtained 47.6%. In the 2016 elections, Mr. Agyarko obtained 57.3% to beat the NDC candidate Delali Kwasi Brempong, who obtained 39.6%.
However, in November 2018, Emmanuel Agyarko
died, necessitating a by-election in the constituency. The NDC retained their
2016 parliamentary candidate, Delali Kwasi Brempong, for the by-election. The
NPP, on the other hand, elected the wife of Mr. Agyarko, Lydia Alhassan, as
their parliamentary candidate. The 31st January 2019 by-election was marred by
violence which led
to the injuring of about six people, believed
to be members of the NDC. Sam
George, MP for Ningo Prampram, was also assaulted
by security personnel believed to be members of the SWAT team of the Ghana
Police Service.
The NDC reacted to the violence by withdrawing
from the by-election, accusing the NPP and President Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo
of deliberately intimidating voters and their polling agents. The NPP candidate,
Lydia Seyram Alhassan, won the by-election with 68.8% of the votes, with the
NDC candidate obtaining 30.5%.
In the 2020 elections, the NDC presented John Dumelo as their parliamentary candidate, while the NPP retained Lydia Alhassan as their parliamentary candidate. The 2020 elections can be described as the most competitive in recent times, as John Dumelo was able to bridge the gap between the NDC and the NPP significantly. Lydia Alhassan of the NPP polled 39,851 votes, representing 51.36%, while John Dumelo polled 37,498 votes, representing 48.3%.
Key Issues in the Constituency
One of the major concerns for residents,
particularly those living around the UPSA is the
lack of functional streetlights near the university. This has left many
residents vulnerable, with reported increase in robbery and theft cases. “We don’t have lights, when we are
walking, we are much concentrated on our phones because the riders have been
taking our phones,” a UPSA student told Citi news.
“We
find it extremely difficult to see when driving. In the case where someone
crosses the road, you may not even see, and this can lead to you knocking down
the person. The students are always getting stabbed and having their phones
snatched on the main road. We have even caught a thief before. The lack of
functional streetlights is also a cause,” one driver also told Citi News.
Another
major issue for residents in the constituency is the water crisis, which hits
some students at the University of Ghana. Recently, John Dumelo responded to the water
shortage by providing some tankers of water to support students that were affected,
highlighting the severity of the situation.
Other key challenges in the constituency include inadequate affordable housing and youth unemployment.
Who Wins?
Given
the impressive performance of the NDC in the 2020 elections, it is clear that
the upcoming elections will be challenging for the NPP, at least at the
parliamentary level.
A recent poll by Global Info Analytics shows that 39% of respondents intend to vote for the NPP candidate Lydia Alhassan, while about 56% intend to vote for John Dumelo. If this survey holds, then the NDC may be on track to claim the seat for the first time in more than two decades.
Over the past few months, an intriguing
development has emerged that could potentially alter the political landscape of
the Ayawaso West Wuogon Constituency. Media reports
suggest that former Ghana Black Stars captain, Stephen Appiah is preparing to
run as an independent candidate. Although the former Juventus star has neither
confirmed nor denied these reports, they have been widely reported by credible
media outlets including Citi News and GBC. If these reports are accurate,
Appiah's candidacy could negatively impact the chances of NDC candidate John
Dumelo, as much of Dumelo's support base, primarily the youth, might split
their votes with Appiah. This situation could potentially benefit the NPP
candidate, Lydia Alhassan, by allowing her to retain the seat.
Will the stars align with the polls for the NDC on December 7? Stay tuned!
Follow the 2024 Ghanaian Election on Twitter @Ghanaelections and Facebook @Ghana Post-Elections.
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