Written by Justin Tusoe
2024
is an election year in Ghana. The two main political parties – the National
Democratic Congress (NDC) and the New Patriotic Party (NPP) have already elected
their flagbearers. This article provides insights into the potential running
mates for former President John Mahama and Vice President Dr Mahamudu Bawumia
and how that will impact the outcome of the 2024 general elections.
The
NDC held its primaries on May 13, 2023, with former President John Mahama overwhelmingly
endorsed as the flagbearer, securing nearly 99 per cent (98.9%)
of valid votes cast.
Similarly, on November 4, 2023, the NPP conducted its
primaries, which saw Vice President Dr Mahamudu Bawumia win with 62.43% of valid votes, defeating his closest contender Kennedy
Agyapong, who garnered 37.41%.
With the flagbearers now known, the conversation has shifted
to their selection of running mates, a subject that has sparked anxiety and
speculations, not only among supporters and sympathizers of the two major
political parties but also among political watchers, the media, floating
voters, and the general public alike.
But what is the actual impact of running mates on the
electoral prospects of presidential candidates? To what extent does the
selection of a running mate influence voter decisions in Ghana? Further, does
choosing a running mate from a specific region guarantee victory for the party
in that region?
The answers to these questions are varied, as evidenced by election
results from recently held presidential elections. For
instance, in 2016, Prof Issac Owusu (Report of Elections Study of 24 Swing Constituencies) investigated the impact
of running mate selection on voter decisions across five regions (Greater
Accra, Western, Brong Ahafo, Northern and Central), in which 51% of the respondents stated that the choice of a
running mate did not affect their decision, while 42% acknowledged its
influence.
Similarly, in 2020, a survey by iRIS Research Group across twelve regions in Ghana revealed that 25% believed the selection of a running mate could influence their vote, while 72% claimed it had no impact on their voting decision. These findings highlight some of the complex dynamics surrounding the influence of running mates in elections in Ghana.
Historical Choice of Running Mates for the NDC and NPP
Since the start of the Fourth Republic in 1992, the NDC and
the NPP have strategically chosen running mates in a way to achieve a regional,
ethnic, religious, and recently, gender balance, a necessary step to ensure
inclusivity and attract voters from all voting blocs of the country.
The NDC
The NDC, since its formation in 1992, has always chosen its vice-presidential
candidates from the Central Region, except in 2000, 2004 and 2008 when it selected Martin
Amidu (Upper East Region), Mohammed Mumuni (Northern Region), and John
Dramani Mahama (Northern Region) respectively.
Although
the party has always chosen either the presidential candidate or the vice-presidential
candidate from the Central Region in all elections since the 4th
Republic, their victory in the region has been varied, winning four times
(1992, 1996, 2008, 2012) and losing four times (2000, 2004, 2016, 2020). This
shows that picking a candidate from a particular region may not necessarily
guarantee victory for the party in that region.
If these statistics are anything to go by, then the NDC's
strategy of including a candidate from the Central Region in every election
since 1992 (with Arkaah in 1992, Atta Mills in 1996, Amissah-Arthur in 2012 and
2016, Prof. Opoku-Agyemang in 2020, and Professor Mills as flagbearer in 2000,
2004, and 2008) have not yielded the desired results, necessitating the need
for the party to review its selection criteria for better electoral outcomes.
The graph below shows the performance of the NDC in the Central Region from 1996 to 2020. As shown in the graph, the performance of the NDC has not been stable.
Source: Author’s computation, data from Electoral Commission (EC)
The NPP
The NPP, however, except in 1996, has always
chosen their running mates from the Northern Region, beginning with the late former
Vice President Alhaji Aliu Mahama (2000 and 2004) and Dr Bawumia (2008, 2012,
2016 and 2020). This approach appears to be yielding results, with their vote share
in the Northern Region and the entire northern part of the country, increasing steadily.
Although the
electoral success of the party in the northern part of Ghana cannot be
attributed solely to the impact of Dr Bawumia, one would agree that Dr Bawumia,
in the lead to the 2016 elections, prosecuted a successful campaign against
former president Mahama on economic management grounds. While the
implementation of some of these economic policies he touted has turned out to
be shambolic, one cannot underestimate the contribution of Dr Bawumia to the increasing
share of the NPP performance in the northern part of Ghana and the electoral
fortunes of the NPP.
The graph below
shows the performance of the NPP in the Northern Region, from 1996 to 2020. The
graph shows that the performance of the party in the Region has been rising
steadily, from 38.9% in 1996 to 46.4% in 2020. This is quite impressive, given
that the Northern Region, and for that matter the entire northern Ghana has
historically been a stronghold of the NDC.
Source: Author’s computation, data from the Electoral Commission (EC)
Potential Choices for John Mahama and Dr Mahamudu Bawumia
Even as the candidates prepare to announce their running mates, there
are speculations in the media about the possible options.
With John Mahama and Dr Bawumia both from the northern part of the
country, the likely expectations are that they will pick their running mates
from the southern part of the country, a move which is necessary to strike a
regional balance.
John Mahama
Even before Mahama settles on a running mate, there are already pressures
mounting on him from various camps of the party to either retain or drop Professor
Jane Naana Opoku Agyemang.
Professor Jane Naana Opoku-Agyemang, 72, was the running mate for former
president Mahama in the 2020 election. She was also the Minister of Education
from 2013 to 2016.
Currently, she is considered as one of the most likely running mates for former
President Mahama. Proponents of her candidature argue that her distinguished
educational and professional background appeal to floating voters and the
middle class. Furthermore, having run alongside Mahama in 2020, she is already
known and needs no extensive publicity. Finally, they contend that having her on
the ticket suggests a bold step towards gender equity, as women make up 51% of the population. This, they argue, could attract female voters to
vote for the NDC.
However, critics disagree with these assertions. They argue that
Professor Opoku Agyemang failed to deliver the Central Region, her home region
to the NDC in the 2020 elections. Some assert that she lacks the dynamism and
the charisma that is needed to ignite new voter interest and mobilize support
for victory. Some have also dismissed the gender card. They argue that her
choice has very little influence on how most women vote in the elections.
Citing 2020 as an example, they contend that the NDC played the gender card
strongly but still lost the elections.
There are also speculations of other leading members of the NDC being considered
for the position. These include Former Vice Chancellor of the UPSA and 2020
campaign Manager of the party Prof Joshua Alabi, Former Chief of Staff Julius
Debrah, and former Minister of Trade and flagbearer hopeful Dr Ekow
Spio-Gabrah.
The rest are Former Managing Director, of Tema Oil Refinery Kwame Awuah
Darko and Former Minister of Agriculture Hon Eric Opoku.
Thus, the views as to whom Mahama selects as his running mate are wide and varied.
Dr Mahamudu Bawumia
The NPP won the 2016 elections on economic grounds; however, with the current state of the economy – high deficits, inflation, slow growth, exchange rate
depreciation, and interest rate hikes – there is no doubt that Ghanaians are
going through very difficult times. Many pre-election surveys have predicted victory for the opposition NDC, on the back of the
worsening economic conditions. With their flagbearer, Dr Bawumia from North East
Region (a relatively small place in terms of voter population), the party would
have to consult widely in the selection of its running mate, as any mistake
could jeopardize their chances of winning the 2024 elections.
There appears to be some hope for the NPP, at least according to results
from the eight elections in the 4th Republic. If the party can
choose a formidable candidate from the Ashanti Region (the party’s stronghold
and Ghana’s second most populous region), their mantra - “breaking the 8” could
be possible.
It is within this context, that
leading members of the NPP are advocating for Dr Bawumia to choose his running
mate from the Ashanti Region. They argue that if the person can deliver the
Ashanti Region with at least 75% of the votes, the party will win the election.
It will be recalled that in the first round of the 2008 elections, the NPP led
the NDC, having won just two regions (Eastern and Ashanti) out of ten regions.
Among the names that are being speculated as potential partners for
Bawumia include Energy Minister and MP for Manhyia South, Dr Mattew Opoku
Prempeh; Majority Leader and MP for Suame, Hon Osei Kyei Mensa Bonsu; Minister
for Education and MP for Bosomtwi, Dr Yaw Adutwum; First Deputy Speaker and MP
for Bekwai, Joe Osei Owusu and Chief of Staff, Frema Opare.
Thus, the opinions on whom Dr Bawumia chooses as his running mate are
wide and varied. Although Dr Bawumia has the power to nominate a running mate,
the final decision or authority lies with the National Executive Committee
(NEC) of the party.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the NDC strategy of always choosing a running mate or a
presidential candidate from the Central Region (a swing region) seems not to
have yielded much results. The party will need to re-examine its selection criteria
and explore the option of choosing a candidate from another swing region, other
than the Central Region, such as the Greater Accra and Western Regions. However,
such a choice must be made strategically considering other factors such as the population
of the region, ethnic, religious, gender and regional balance.
The NPP, however, to a large extent, has been successful in their choice
of running mate from the Northern Region (an NDC stronghold), per evidence from
the election results. With Dr Bawumia now their flagbearer, the party can give
the NDC a strong challenge if he chooses his running mate from the Ashanti
Region.
Above all, however, every election has its dynamics and determining
factors and goes beyond just geographical factors, ethnic background and
personalities. Ultimately, Ghanaians will consider the performance of both
candidates in terms of the economy, job creation, and fight against corruption
etc. in their voting decision, according to a survey by Global Info Analytics. Fortunately, both candidates have had the experience
of leading the country in different capacities at the highest level, so it is easy to measure their performance.
Editing by Harriet Ofori, Jerry Sam and Peter Agbesi Adivor
Follow the the 2024 Ghanaian Election on Twitter @Ghanaelectionsand Facebook @Ghana Post-Elections.