The Assin North Constituency is located in the Assin North District of the Central Region of Ghana. It has a total population of about 80,539 (2021 population and housing census) and a voter population of 41,000 (per the 2020 electoral register).
The main economic activity for its constituents is agriculture, employing about 74% of the economically active people. The Constituency produces agricultural products such as cocoa, rice, oil palm, cassava, maize, plantain, cocoyam, and vegetables. In addition to crops, livestock rearing is also a major agricultural activity as well as fish farming and poultry production.
The Assin North Constituency was originally a stronghold of the New Patriotic Party (NPP). From 2000 to 2012, the NPP held the seat with Kennedy Ohene Agyapong as the Member of Parliament (MP). In 2012, the larger Assin North Constituency was divided into two: Assin North (retaining the original name) and the newly created Assin Central. Kennedy Ohene Agyapong, who had been the MP for the larger Assin North, moved to contest the new Assin Central seat, which was considered his stronghold.
A map of the Assin North Constituency and
boundary constituencies (African Elections)
The current Member of Parliament (MP) for the Constituency
is James Gyakye Quayson, who won the 2020 elections and subsequently won a
by-election in June 2023 after the Supreme Court declared his initial election
unconstitutional.
In the 2024 elections, Mr Gyakye Quayson will
face Charles Opoku of the New Patriotic Party (NPP), whom he defeated in the
by-election. Will Mr Gyakye Quayson be able to retain the seat, considering
that the NPP won the presidential elections in the constituency in 2020?
This article provides insights into the
presidential and parliamentary voting patterns over the years, key challenges
for voters, and potential outcomes of the upcoming elections.
(African Elections)
Presidential
Voting Patterns in the Assin North Constituency
The
Assin North Constituency has been largely a stronghold of the NPP in
presidential elections.
The division of the Constituency into two in 2012 marked a turning point for the NDC, as John Mahama led the party to victory for the first time in 12 years, garnering 54.4% of the votes. Nevertheless, the NPP regained control in the 2016 and 2020 elections, with Akufo-Addo securing the win with 52% and 50.6%, respectively.
The graph below shows the voting pattern in the presidential elections from 1996 to 2020.
Source: Author's computation with data from the Electoral Commission of Ghana (African Elections)
Parliamentary
voting Patterns in the Assin North Constituency
Parliamentary elections in the Assin North Constituency have been dominated by the NPP. In 1996, Florence Kumi won the seat on the ticket of the NDC with 63% of the votes against Kwabena Karikari-Apau of the NPP, who obtained 35%. In 2000, the NPP presented businessman, Kennedy Ohene Agyapong, as their parliamentary candidate to contest the incumbent MP, Florence Kumi. Kennedy achieved a landslide victory, securing 57% of the votes against the incumbent MP, who obtained 40%.
Kennedy Agyapong retained the seat for the NPP in the 2004 and 2008 elections, defeating Percy Kwasi Aboagye Mensah of the NDC with 59% of the votes and Alex D. Antwi Boasiako with 55% respectively. Although the NDC lost three consecutive elections from 2000 to 2008, their votes in the northern part of Assin North remained high. Kennedy Agyapong garnered significant support from the central part of the then Assin North Constituency. Consequently, when Assin Central was carved out as a stand-alone constituency from Assin North in 2012, some political analysts believed it was a strategy to give the NDC an advantage in winning Assin North.
Kennedy Agyapong went on to contest Assin Central, which gave an advantage to the NDC. With the Agyapong hurdle cleared, the NDC presented Samuel Ambre as their parliamentary candidate for Assin North in the 2012 elections, and he won the seat for the party for the first time in twelve years, defeating Ebenezer Appiah Kubi of the NPP with 52% of the votes. Samuel Ambre however lost to Abena Durowaa Mensah of the NPP in the 2016 elections, with the later obtaining 57% of the votes.
In the 2020 elections, the NPP retained Abena Durowaa Mensah as their parliamentary candidate for the constituency. The NDC presented James Gyakye Quayson as their candidate. Gyakye Quayson obtained 17,498 votes, representing 55.2%, beating the NPP parliamentary candidate, who obtained 14,193 votes, representing 44.8%.
The graph below shows the performance of the NDC and the NPP from 1996 to 2020.
Source: Author's computation with data from the Electoral Commission of Ghana (African Elections)
Before Gyakye Quayson could assume office in January 2021, a man from Assin Breku, Michael Ankomah-Nimfah, went to the Cape Coast High Court to restrain the Clerk of Parliament from swearing him in, arguing that he wasn't qualified to be an MP at the time he was elected. He was, however, sworn in following a heated debate on the floor of Parliament.
Gyakye Quayson believes his case was political and an effort by the NPP to reduce the number of MPs on the NDC side so they could re-elect their preferred candidate, Prof. Mike Aaron Oquaye, as the Speaker of Parliament.
In July 2021, Ankomah-Nimfah won a judgment at the Cape Coast High Court nullifying Quayson’s election on the basis that the MP held Canadian citizenship at the time he filed to contest. Despite the judgement, Quayson continued to conduct his business as MP. Ankomah-Nimfah, therefore, proceeded to the Supreme Court in January 2023 to seek an interpretation of Article 94 (2) (a), the same constitutional provision the High Court used to nullify Quayson’s election.
In a unanimous decision by a seven-member panel, the Supreme Court ruled that the EC acted unconstitutionally in allowing him to contest the 2020 parliamentary elections without proof of him renouncing his Canadian citizenship. Per the Supreme Court's interpretation of the 1992 Constitution, since Quayson had not received his renunciation certificate, he was still a Canadian citizen at the time he filed with the Electoral Commission to contest the 2020 election, and so he was not qualified. The 2020 parliamentary election results at Assin North were therefore annulled, and the seat was declared vacant.
With his Canadian citizenship renunciation certificate now in hand, having received it later in 2020, he was qualified to contest again, and the NDC gave him the nod to re-contest. The NPP elected Charles Opoku as their parliamentary candidate. The by-election was one of the most competitive in recent years, due to the hung parliament (an equal number of MPs from both sides). If the NPP had won this election, it would have given them a clear majority (138 MPs, against 136 MPs from the NDC side and one independent candidate) to conduct government business. The NPP government therefore used all means, including undertaking last-minute projects in the constituency, to win the seat. Gyakye Quayson won the by-election with 17,245 votes, representing 57.56% of the valid votes cast, while the New Patriotic Party candidate, Charles Opoku, came second with 12,630 votes, representing 42.15%.
Speaking to the media after his victory, Gyakye
Quayson commended
his constituents for placing their trust in him despite what he described
as manipulations by the NPP. He characterized his win as recognising the
conscience of people who cannot be influenced by money. He referred to his
treatment before the election as an "injustice" done to his
constituents.
One of the factors attributed to the NPP's loss in the by-election was the implementation of last-minute projects. Shortly after the seat was declared vacant, the government hastily initiated road construction and other projects in the area to sway voter sentiment. This move incensed some residents who perceived it as a deliberate attempt to influence votes in favor of the NPP.
Key Issues for Voters
The issues at play in Assin North are diverse and intricate, with residents expressing concerns about various issues such as infrastructure, healthcare, education, and employment opportunities.
Some residents speaking to the media before the by-election bemoaned the poor condition of their roads. "Our roads have been in bad shape since 1996, and there has been no improvement until now. So, if they are repairing our town roads, it's because of Gyakye Quayson," a concerned resident share their sentiments.
Who
Wins?
Predicting
the outcome of the upcoming election in this swing constituency is challenging.
In the 2020 elections, President Akufo-Addo secured victory in the Constituency,
while the parliamentary seat was won by the NDC candidate, James Gyakye
Quayson. The NDC's prospects in the 2024 election will largely hinge on the
achievements of the incumbent MP, Gyakye Quayson, following the by-election.
The NPP's performance will depend largely on its ability to continue and complete the projects initiated during the by-election period. Overall, this election is expected to be highly competitive, and the party that can best address the needs and concerns of the constituents is likely to garner their support.
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