2025 African Elections Outlook

By Richard Hakim (Penplusbytes)

As Africa embarks on another year of significant political activity, the 2025 elections will serve as a litmus test for democratic resilience and governance across the continent. While fewer countries are holding elections compared to 2024, the stakes remain high, with 10 nations gearing up for presidential, legislative, and local polls.

These elections come against a backdrop of varying political landscapes, from entrenched autocracies to fragile democracies seeking consolidation. Across board, issues such as economic hardship, governance challenges, and external influences will shape the electoral outcomes and their broader implications.

The credibility of these elections will also be a critical theme, as several countries face concerns over transparency, repression, and institutional integrity. In nations like Togo and Gabon, electoral processes are heavily orchestrated to maintain incumbent power, while places like Côte d’Ivoire and Seychelles hold promise for more competitive and transparent contests.

This outlook delves into the political, economic, and security contexts shaping Africa’ 2025 elections, providing a comprehensive analysis of what lies ahead for each country and its citizens.

Cameroon

PC: Alvise Forcellini

Presidential elections are due to be held in Cameroon on 5th October 2025. Cameroon’s 2025 presidential election represents a pivotal moment as President Paul Biya seeks an eighth term in office, continuing a political tenure that began in 1982. The Cameroon People's Democratic Movement (RDPC) dominates the country’s politics, leveraging its control over electoral bodies and the judiciary to maintain its grip on power. Speculation surrounding Biya’s health and potential succession has created additional political tension, intensifying divisions within both the ruling party and the opposition.

Maurice Kamto, a prominent opposition leader, has emerged as a unifying figure for the fragmented opposition. Kamto’s coalition, the Political Alliance for Change (APC), promotes health, education, and equity reforms as a counter-balance to decades of centralized governance. However, the opposition’s efforts are hindered by government repression, including the banning of political coalitions and the detention of dissenters, which underscores the heavily skewed electoral landscape.

Ethnic and regional disparities, especially in the Anglophone Northwest and Southwest Regions, continue to fuel unrest. These areas, plagued by clashes between separatist groups and government forces, suffer from displacement and voter suppression. The government’s failure to address these long-standing grievances exacerbates national disunity.

Adding to the challenges are security threats from Boko Haram in the northern regions and environmental degradation in the Congo Basin. Illegal logging and resource mismanagement contribute to economic inequality, amplifying public discontent. These issues heighten the stakes of the 2025 elections, as Cameroon faces pressure to address its socio-economic and governance crises.

External influences, particularly Russian-backed disinformation campaigns,  including the spread of misleading narratives on social media platforms and state-sponsored propaganda targeting opposition groups further complicate the election environment.

 The outcome of the 2025 election will have significant implications for Cameroon’s stability and its role in regional geopolitics.

Central African Republic (CAR)

A voter casts her ballot at a polling station PC: EPA

The Central African Republic’s (CAR) December 2025 General elections are set against the backdrop of President Faustin-Archange Touadéra’s 2023 constitutional referendum, which removed presidential term limits and extended terms to seven years. These changes reflect a consolidation of power, raising doubts about the credibility of the electoral process and the country’s democratic trajectory.

Touadéra’s administration has systematically dismantled checks and balances, banning political rallies, imprisoning opposition figures, and censoring the media. Russian influence, particularly through the Wagner Group, is deeply entrenched in CAR’s security apparatus and resource sectors. This foreign interference, coupled with violent suppression of dissent, underscores the fragility of CAR’s institutions.

Insecurity remains a pressing concern, with armed groups controlling vast rural areas. Spillovers from conflicts in neighboring Sudan exacerbate the instability, straining CAR’s ability to conduct free and fair elections. Human rights abuses and resource exploitation further hinder efforts to stabilize the nation.

Reformist voices within civil society and opposition parties continue to advocate for governance improvements, but their impact is limited by the erosion of democratic spaces. International observers and regional bodies must remain vigilant to address these challenges and support meaningful reforms.

The 2025 election in CAR is pivotal for the country’s future. Obviously, its outcome will not only influence domestic stability but also regional dynamics, particularly concerning resource management and Russian influence.

Côte d’Ivoire

A voter casts his ballot at a polling station PC: AFP

Côte d’Ivoire’s October presidential election stands out as a test of democratic consolidation in West Africa. With several top candidates, including President Alassane Ouattara, former Prime Minister Pascal Affi N’Guessan, and economist Tidjane Thiam, the race is expected to be highly competitive.

Ouattara’s decision to seek a fourth term, enabled by a controversial Constitutional Court ruling, has drawn criticism but also signals a potential generational shift within the ruling Rally of Houphouëtists for Democracy and Peace (RHDP). Meanwhile, opposition candidates like Simone Gbagbo and Laurent Gbagbo bring diverse perspectives, though legal challenges limit some candidates’ eligibility.

Recent reforms have enhanced the credibility of Côte d’Ivoire’s electoral institutions. Transparent voter registration and anti-corruption initiatives have bolstered public confidence, though external threats, including Russian disinformation campaigns, remain a concern. The country’s proactive security measures in its northern regions further demonstrate its commitment to stability.

The elections will test the resilience of Côte d’Ivoire’s institutions and the ability of political leaders to maintain progress toward national reconciliation and economic development. Their conduct will likely influence broader perceptions of governance across the region.

Gabon

Gabon's interim President, General Oligui Nguema speaks at his inauguration ceremony PC: AFP

General elections are due to be held in Gabon on 12 April 2025. This will be the first elections in the country since the Bongo dynasty was overthrown in the 2023 coup after 56 years of rule.

Gabon’s 2025 elections will take place under the shadow of Brigadier General Brice Oligui Nguema’s military regime. Following his 2023 coup, Oligui has methodically consolidated power through constitutional amendments, extending presidential terms and removing checks on executive authority. These maneuvers have created an environment of limited political competition.

The regime has marginalized opposition groups and civil society, using intimidation and media control to suppress dissent. Economic challenges, including high unemployment and inequality, fuel public discontent but are met with state narratives that frame opposition as unpatriotic. These tactics mirror those used by other autocratic leaders in the region.

Despite Gabon’s oil wealth, economic mismanagement continues to hinder progress. Public frustration with governance may drive voter interest, though the tightly controlled electoral process limits opportunities for genuine change. External stakeholders must focus on supporting marginalized voices and advocating for institutional accountability.

The 2025 elections are unlikely to yield surprises but remain significant for assessing Gabon’s trajectory under Oligui’s rule. The role of international advocacy and civil society will also be crucial in promoting democratic renewal.

Guinea

PC: NDI and KAF

Guinea’s 2025 elections occur amid heightened political tensions under Colonel Mamadi Doumbouya’s military junta. The proposed constitutional referendum appears designed to entrench military dominance, raising questions about the junta’s commitment to democratic transition.

Opposition parties and civil society face significant repression, with protests met by violent crackdowns and arbitrary arrests. These actions undermine the credibility of the electoral process and highlight the junta’s prioritization of power over governance. Economic challenges, including inflation and food insecurity, exacerbate public dissatisfaction.

International actors, particularly ECOWAS, have called for transparency, but Russia’s growing influence complicates these efforts. Moscow’s support for Guinea’s junta aligns with its broader strategy of backing autocratic regimes in the region.

Guinea’s elections will test the resilience of its civil society and the ability of external stakeholders to uphold democratic norms. The outcome will have significant implications for the country’s governance and regional stability.

Guinea-Bissau

Guinea-Bissau’s 2025 elections remain uncertain amid delays and political instability under President Umaro Sissoco Embaló. The dissolution of parliament and concentration of executive power highlight the fragile state of the country’s semi-presidential system.

Tensions between the president and parliament have undermined governance, with Embaló seeking to expand presidential authority at the expense of constitutional checks and balances. These actions have deepened political divisions and hindered progress toward credible elections.

Economic challenges, including reliance on narcotics trafficking and illegal logging, further strain Guinea-Bissau’s institutions. Public frustration grows as civil society struggles to organize under restrictive government measures. International actors, including ECOWAS, must prioritize transparency and accountability in the electoral process.

Guinea-Bissau’s elections are critical for stabilizing the country and addressing entrenched corruption.

Malawi

PC: AFP

Malawi’s September 2025 General elections come at a time of economic hardship and political contention. President Lazarus Chakwera faces challenges from former leaders Peter Mutharika and Joyce Banda, each of whom carry their own political baggage. Economic issues, including food insecurity and inflation, dominate public discourse, as voters seek practical solutions to daily struggles.

The elections will test Malawi’s robust democratic institutions, including its independent judiciary, which has set a high bar for electoral integrity. Coalition-building among smaller parties may shape the outcome, particularly in a potential second round of voting.

Malawi’s civil society and media remain active in holding political leaders accountable. The 2025 elections present an opportunity to reinforce democratic principles and address pressing economic challenges, offering a pathway to sustainable development.

Seychelles

Voters line up to cast their ballots in Seychelles

Seychelles’ 2025 elections will evaluate the leadership of President Wavel Ramkalawan, who seeks a second term following his historic 2020 victory. The focus will likely be on economic diversification and poverty reduction in a nation heavily reliant on tourism.

The country’s democratic institutions have strengthened in recent years, reflected in its high ranking on the Transparency International Corruption Perceptions Index.

Geopolitical dynamics also play a role, as Seychelles balances relations with India and China. India had negotiated an agreement with the previous Seychellois government to establish a naval base on Seychelles’ Assumption Island. The Ramkalawan government has paused this agreement to avoid being pulled into geostrategic rivalries and to consider the environmental impacts. China, meanwhile, has stepped up its diplomatic outreach to each of the region’s island nations—Comoros, Madagascar, Maldives, Mauritius, and Seychelles.

The elections will serve as a barometer for the nation’s progress in achieving sustainable development and democratic consolidation.

Tanzania

Women listen to a radio broadcast in Zanzibar, Tanzania. PC: UNDP

Tanzania’s October 2025 General elections will mark a crucial moment in its post-Magufuli era. President Samia Suluhu Hassan has taken steps to restore democratic norms, including lifting restrictions on opposition rallies and releasing political prisoners. However, opposition parties continue to face challenges, as reports of repression and political violence surface.

Economic issues, particularly youth unemployment and rural development dominate the political agenda ahead of the polls. Tanzania’s leadership in addressing climate change and regional security challenges underscores its importance in East Africa, making this election another test case for the resilience of its democratic institutions and Hassan’s ability to unify a divided ruling party.

Togo

Woman casts ballot at a polling station. PC: Emile Kouton/AFP

Togo’s February 15 2025 Senatorial elections reflect the entrenchment of President Faure Gnassingbé’s regime, which has dismantled key democratic processes. The establishment of a new executive role for the president, the President of the Council of Ministers, consolidates power within the ruling Union for the Republic (UNIR) party and removes direct presidential elections.

The opposition’s boycott of senatorial election underscores widespread dissatisfaction with the electoral process, which is marred by allegations of fraud and government manipulation. Economic stagnation and youth unemployment further fuel public discontent, while bans on political rallies stifle dissent.

Regional instability, particularly from militant spillovers in Burkina Faso, adds to Togo’s challenges. The 2025 elections are emblematic of the country’s democratic backsliding, necessitating international attention to support grassroot democratic efforts.