The Zabzugu constituency is situated in the Zabzugu district in the Northern Region of Ghana. It used to be part of the larger Zabzugu-Tatale District until the Tatale-Sangule District was carved out of it in 2012.
A map of the Zabzugu district and boundary districts (African Elections)
According to the 2021
Population and Housing Census, the total population of the district is
82,846, comprising 40,879 males and 41,967 females. As of 2020, the total
number of registered voters in the Constituency, according to the Electoral
Commission (EC), is 36,744. The main source of income for residents is
farming with yam, maize, millet and groundnut being commonly produced.
Voting Patterns in Zabzugu
The voting patterns in the Zabzugu
constituency is an interesting story of political dynamics that has unfolded
over the years. What was once considered a stronghold for the National
Democratic Congress (NDC), at least from 1996 to 2000 elections, has evolved
into a swing constituency, showcasing a vibrant and unpredictable political
landscape.
Presidential Election Outcomes in Zabzugu
The trend in presidential outcomes in the
Zabzugu constituency is quite different from its swing nature in parliamentary
elections. The NDC has secured presidential victories in the Constituency only
twice, during the 1996 and 2000 elections, with 77.2% and 60.8% of the vote
respectively, leaving the NPP with 20.8% and 28.3%.
However, available data for subsequent
elections shows a clear shift. The NPP has consistently defeated the NDC in the
presidential elections, i.e., in 2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020. Here is a
breakdown of the results:
- In 2008, the NPP won with 56.0%, while the
NDC received 41.9%.
- In 2012, the NPP secured 50.8%, and the NDC
got 47.9%.
- In 2016, the NPP won with 49.6%, closely
followed by the NDC with 49.4%.
- In 2020, the NPP won again with 54.6%,
leaving the NDC with 44.97%.
This pattern highlights a strong preference for the NPP in presidential elections within the Zabzugu constituency.
Source: Author's computation with data from the Electoral Commission
Parliamentary Voting Patterns in the Zabzugu Constituency
Source: Author's computation with data from the Electoral Commission
The Constituency’s current Member of Parliament
is Hon. Jabaah John Bennam of the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP).
In the early years, the NDC had a strong
control on the parliamentary seat in the Constituency, winning three
consecutive elections in 1996, 2000, and 2004. In 1996, the NDC secured a
commanding victory with 65.2% of the votes, while the NPP lagged behind with
22.6%. This trend continued into the 2000 elections, although with a narrower
margin, as the NDC garnered 35.8% compared to the NPP which came in third with
17.2%, behind John Kokpah, who was one of two independent candidates in that
race. By 2004, the NDC once again emerged victorious with 50.9%, leaving the
NPP close behind with 47.8%.
During those 12 years, the NDC's dominance appeared
unshakeable. One could confidently regard the constituency as an NDC stronghold;
however, the winds of political change began blowing, and the Constituency's
voting pattern shifted dramatically. In a surprising turn of events, the NPP
captured the parliamentary seat in both the 2008 and 2012 elections, winning
56.4% and 51.4% of the votes respectively, while the NDC trailed with 35.5% and
47.2% respectively.
These victories acknowledged the evolving
political change in the Constituency by showing a shift in the voting trend by
constituents.
The 2016 election saw the NDC reclaiming
the seat by the slimmest of margins, with 50.3% of the vote against the NPP’s
49.7%. The very close win highlighted the intense competition and fluctuating political
loyalties within the Constituency. While the NDC managed to regain control, the
close result indicated a weak performance compared to their earlier triumphs
and the fierce challenge posed by the NPP. In the 2020 elections, the NPP again
won the seat, securing 54.58% of the vote, while the NDC garnered 45.42%.
Challenges in the Zabzugu Constituency
The District has faced numerous challenges
over the years, from bad
roads and a lack of potable drinking water to inadequate school
infrastructure and perennial flooding.
Politically, the Constituency is fast becoming an electoral hotspot. In the
2012 election, two missing ballot papers caused a significant delay in the
declaration of results. Adding to the tension, in the 2020 election, the EC
deferred the declaration of the parliamentary results following a scuffle
between agents of the NDC and NPP over the results of some polling
stations in the Constituency. Again,
a clash
over voter transfer in June 2024 resulted in the hospitalization of five
people.
Who Will Win the Zabzugu Seat in this Year's Election?
The Zabzugu constituency is drawing closer to another showdown as the parliamentary candidates gear up for a contest that promises to be nothing short of dramatic. Representing the ruling NPP is Alhaji Fawaz Aliu, a Deputy Chief of Staff at the Office of the President. On the other side, the opposition NDC has fielded Hon. Alhassan Umar, a former MP in the 7th parliament to reclaim his lost territory.
(African Elections)
The historic voting patterns in the Zabzugu
constituency have firmly established it as a quintessential swing seat. The
uncertainty makes it interesting, drawing significant attention to this year's
election. Despite the lack of concrete research on what drives the fluctuating
voter behavior in the Constituency, one thing is clear: predicting the winner
is a near-impossible task.
According
to Adams and Agomor (2015), swing voters are characterized by a conscious
evaluation of government and candidate performance, rather than partisan
affiliation, ethnicity, religion, or other non-evaluative factors, a view
supported by Campbell (2007) and Kim (2016)
In the Zabzugu constituency, the
performances and proposed policies of both candidates will play pivotal roles
in swaying these discerning voters.
On one side, we have the experienced Hon.
Alhassan Umar, whose track
record as a former MP could endear him to the constituents once more. On
the other hand, Alhaji Fawaz Aliu, a newcomer whose fresh perspective and
energetic campaign might just attract and appeal to the voters’ interests.
Adding to the drama are the various charitable works and proposed policies each candidate may be offering. These initiatives could help decide the winner.
It is however worthy to note that a recent opinion poll by Global Info Analytics puts the NPP parliamentary candidate in the lead with 53% of voters going in his favor as opposed to the NDC candidate's 36%. 11% of voters remain undecided in the constituency according to the poll.
Will the former MP's legacy and efforts win over the hearts of the constituents? Or will the first-time contestant's campaign activities and promises outshine his rival? As the clock ticks down to election day, the suspense builds. The power to decide lies in the hands of the swing voters, and their decision will be the ultimate decider. All eyes are on Zabzugu, and with fingers crossed, we await the outcome. May the best candidate win!
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