Photo Credit: @UlfLaessing/Twitter
On Monday, May 6, 2024, approximately 8
million voters in Chad will head to the polls to choose their next
president. This marks the end of a three-year transition led by Mahamat
Idriss Deby Itno.
Mahamat Iddris assumed power in April 2021,
after his father Idris Derby, who had led the country for 30 years, was killed
by rebels who tried to overthrow his government. Mahamat's ascension to the
presidency has received several condemnations,
with many describing it as a clear violation of the country’s constitution.
The country’s election management body, Agence Nationale de Gestion des Elections, has
opened the window for campaigning from April 14 to May 4. With just a few days
left to the elections, candidates are touring the country, actively engaging with,
and presenting their policies and messages to the electorates.
In all, ten candidates are vying to lead
the natural resource-rich country, including the Incumbent President Mahamat
Déby, and Prime Minister Success Masra, who returned from exile in November
after signing a reconciliation agreement with Chad’s military rulers. However,
some political analysts believe that the election is being
engineered to favour the incumbent President Mahamat, as some key political
opponents have been disqualified.
This has raised doubts about the credibility and fairness of the electoral
process, and whether is it being used to legitimize Mahamat’s continued stay in
office.
But what makes this election so crucial?
Who stands the best chance of winning, and what factors will weigh heavily on
the minds of voters as they cast their ballots? This article examines these
issues as well as other key details about the upcoming elections.
Chad's Electoral System
According to Article 136 of the country’s Electoral Code, presidential elections are conducted using a single plurality system with a run-off. That is to say that a candidate must secure at least 50% plus one vote to be declared winner. If no candidate crosses this threshold, a run-off will be held between the two leading candidates and the person who secures the highest number of votes is declared as winner.
What issues will voters consider?
The timing of the upcoming election
couldn't be more critical, as the country grapples with a severe cost-of-living
crisis. Rising fuel, water, and electricity prices, especially in the capital
city of N'Djamena, are weighing heavily on the minds of voters.
Moreover, the worsening security
situation is a growing concern for voters. The northern part of the country is grappling
with significant insecurity, worsened by porous borders with Libya that fuel
human trafficking and smuggling.
Another issue that will be of concern for
voters, as they prepare to cast their ballot is the refugee
crisis. The influx of refugees, particularly from Sudan, Cameroun, and the Central
African Republic poses a significant challenge to the country’s stability and
limited resources.
Who is likely to win the election?
Incumbent President and leader of the Patriotic
Salvation Movement, Mahamat Déby, appears as a clear favourite in the May 6 election,
on the back of his incumbency and strong support within the Tchard Un
Coalition.
However, he faces keen competition from
Prime Minister and leader of The Transformers Party, Success Masra whose plan
is to address Chad’s security challenges, and tackle unemployment
The race also includes notable candidates,
including former Prime Minister Albert Pahimi Padacke and Lydie Beassemda, the only
female candidate.
When will the results be released?
According to the country’s election
authority, results are expected to be released two weeks after the election. If there
is a second round, it will be conducted on 22nd June.
Follow the African Elections Project on Facebook and Twitter @Africanelection for more updates.